Bank of Canada Rate Decision, October 28, 2026: What to Expect
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The Bank of Canada makes its next rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Going in, its policy rate is 2.25% and the major banks' prime rate is 4.45%, both unchanged for a year. This preview sets out what is known before the announcement, what the Bank said it is watching, and what each possible outcome would mean for your mortgage, line of credit and savings. For the rest of our coverage, see the Ratesopedia news section and the mortgages hub.
We do not forecast the decision. The figures below come from the Bank of Canada and Statistics Canada, and every scenario is shown side by side so you can plan for each one.
The decision on October 28
The Bank sets its policy interest rate, also called the target for the overnight rate, on eight fixed dates a year. The October date is one of four that come with a full Monetary Policy Report, the Bank's quarterly forecast. In September, the press release came out at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by a press conference.
Going into the announcement, the three key rates stand as follows:
- Policy rate (target for the overnight rate): 2.25%
- Bank Rate: 2.50%
- Deposit rate: 2.20%
The Bank has held at 2.25% at seven consecutive decisions since its last cut on October 29, 2025. This section will be updated with the October 28 decision as soon as it is published.
Why the Bank held in September
The Bank's account of its September 2 deliberations, released on September 16, explains the last hold. Governing Council saw a split picture: headline inflation pushed up by gasoline, but an economy that still had slack.
The main data points it cited:
- Consumer price index (CPI) inflation: hovering around 3% for several months.
- CPI excluding gasoline: 2.2%.
- Core inflation: around 2%.
- Gross domestic product, second quarter: growth of 3.3%.
- Unemployment rate: around 6.5%.
Council also noted that new US tariffs applied to roughly 5% of Canadian goods exports to the United States. Members agreed that if higher energy prices spread to other prices, a monetary policy response could be required to prevent broad-based inflation. In plain terms, the Bank was no longer describing its next move as a cut.
What the Bank said it would watch
Governing Council named two questions for the months ahead. First, whether the economic recovery holds up against an escalation of US tariffs. Second, whether energy inflation passes through to other goods and services.
Data released since September
Statistics Canada published its August inflation figures on September 14, in The Daily. The key numbers:
- CPI, August 2026: up 3.0% year over year, the same pace as in July.
- CPI excluding gasoline, August 2026: up 2.4%, from 2.2% in July.
- Next CPI release: September data on October 19, 2026, nine days before the decision.
Three outcomes, side by side
A policy rate change usually reaches the banks' prime rate within a day, and prime drives variable mortgages and lines of credit. The table below shows what each outcome would mean if banks move prime by the same amount, as they did at every change in 2024 and 2025.
| Outcome | Policy rate | Prime rate | Example variable mortgage (prime − 0.50%) | Example HELOC (prime + 0.50%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold | 2.25% | 4.45% | 3.95% | 4.95% |
| Cut of 0.25 point | 2.00% | 4.20% | 3.70% | 4.70% |
| Increase of 0.25 point | 2.50% | 4.70% | 4.20% | 5.20% |
What it means for your money
Variable mortgages
A variable mortgage is priced as prime plus or minus a discount. If prime moves, your rate moves by the same amount. With a fixed-payment variable mortgage, the payment stays the same while the split between interest and principal shifts. With an adjustable-payment mortgage, the payment itself changes. The payment shock calculator shows what a higher rate would do to your payment, and our list of the best variable mortgage rates shows current discounts.
Fixed mortgages
Fixed mortgage rates follow Government of Canada bond yields more than the policy rate itself. A fixed offer can rise or fall in a month when the Bank does nothing. If you renew in the next few months, compare both types using our guide to fixed vs. variable mortgages and the mortgage renewal calculator.
HELOCs and lines of credit
Home equity lines of credit and most personal lines of credit are priced at prime plus a margin, so they reprice right away. On a $50,000 balance, each 0.25-point change in prime adds or removes about $10 of interest per month.
Savings accounts and GICs
Savings account rates are set by each institution and often move after a policy rate change, though not always by the full amount. GIC rates follow market yields for their term. If you are deciding where to put cash, compare the best savings accounts and the best GIC rates, then test a term with the GIC returns calculator.
Bank of Canada 2026 announcement dates
The Bank published its 2026 calendar in August 2025. Four dates come with a Monetary Policy Report.
| Announcement date | Decision | Monetary Policy Report |
|---|---|---|
| January 28 | Held at 2.25% | Yes |
| March 18 | Held at 2.25% | No |
| April 29 | Held at 2.25% | Yes |
| June 10 | Held at 2.25% | No |
| July 15 | Held at 2.25% | Yes |
| September 2 | Held at 2.25% | No |
| October 28 | Upcoming | Yes |
| December 9 | Upcoming | No |
Conclusion
The Bank of Canada enters its October 28, 2026 decision with a 2.25% policy rate and a 4.45% prime rate. In September it signalled that rising energy prices could call for a policy response, while slack in the economy argued for patience. Whatever the outcome, borrowers with variable rates will see the change within days, and the next decision falls on December 9, 2026. This preview will be updated after the announcement.
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Frequently asked questions about the Bank of Canada rate decision
When is the next Bank of Canada rate announcement?
The next announcement is on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and it comes with the October Monetary Policy Report. The last one of the year follows on Wednesday, December 9, 2026. The Bank publishes its full calendar a year ahead. To see how a change would affect your payments, try the payment shock calculator.
What is the Bank of Canada's policy rate today?
As of October 18, 2026, the target for the overnight rate is 2.25%, the level set on October 29, 2025. The Bank has held it at seven consecutive decisions since then. The major banks' prime rate has stayed at 4.45% over the same period. Our mortgages hub explains how both rates reach your loans.
How does a Bank of Canada decision affect my mortgage?
A change in the policy rate usually moves the banks' prime rate by the same amount within a day. Variable mortgages and lines of credit follow prime, so they reprice right away. Fixed mortgages already signed do not change until renewal, and new fixed offers follow bond yields. Our guide to fixed vs. variable mortgages covers the trade-off.
Will the Bank of Canada cut or raise rates on October 28?
We do not publish a forecast. In September, Governing Council said a policy response could be required if higher energy prices spread to other prices, while noting the economy still had slack. The September CPI release on October 19 and the October Monetary Policy Report are the next pieces of evidence. Plan for each outcome with the scenarios above and the mortgage renewal calculator.
Does a rate decision change my savings account rate?
It can. Banks set their own savings rates and often adjust them after a policy rate change, sometimes by less than the full amount. GIC rates depend more on market yields for each term. Compare current offers on our list of the best savings accounts.
What is the difference between the policy rate and the prime rate?
The policy rate is the rate the Bank of Canada targets for overnight lending between financial institutions. The prime rate is the rate each bank sets as the base for its variable loans. Since October 30, 2025, the major banks' prime rate has sat 2.20 points above the policy rate. Our list of best variable mortgage rates shows how lenders price off prime.
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